Taking the contrarian side here: despite Troy Williamson being the public favorite, the 6.1% overround and +250 best line on Simon Zachenhuber suggest inflated chalk pricing.

Combat sports produce some of the widest odds differentials — at 77% the market sees a significant skill gap, but upsets at this price range happen 20-30% of the time. The +250 best available on Simon Zachenhuber offers strong plus-money if they can execute their game plan.

Line shopping is critical here — 25-point odds gap across books means getting the best number adds 7.5% to expected ROI. Best available at DraftKings vs worst creates meaningful EV difference.