Market pricing Union Berlin at 39% implied probability, but the best available line at +165 (FanDuel) offers value beyond what the consensus supports.

Soccer markets must price the draw, making two-way moneyline analysis incomplete. With Augsburg at 41% and the draw probability implied around 20%, the pricing suggests a tight match where draw equity depresses both sides.

Market overround at 6.1% is in the normal range with 10 books pricing this game. Confidence level of 67% accounts for the vig-adjusted edge.