Total set at 2.5 with Over priced at -120 (55%) and Under at +100 (50%) — the skew on this line offers a mathematical angle.

Soccer markets must price the draw, making two-way moneyline analysis incomplete. With León at 48% and the draw probability implied around 21%, the pricing suggests a tight match where draw equity depresses both sides. Home pitch advantage is significant in soccer.

Overround at 7.3% means books are taking a large cut — 3.6% per side on average. Factor in the vig before sizing this bet; the true edge is narrower than the raw numbers suggest.