Total set at 2.5 with Over priced at -175 (64%) and Under at +125 (44%) — the skew on this line offers a mathematical angle.

Soccer markets must price the draw, making two-way moneyline analysis incomplete. With Nice at 74% and the draw probability implied around 14%, this is a clear market lean but draw risk remains ever-present. Home pitch advantage is significant in soccer.

Line shopping is critical here — 150-point odds gap across books means getting the best number adds 45.0% to expected ROI. Best available at Caesars vs worst creates meaningful EV difference.