Total set at 2.5 with Over priced at -159 (61%) and Under at +123 (45%) — the skew on this line offers a mathematical angle.

Soccer markets must price the draw, making two-way moneyline analysis incomplete. With St. Louis City SC at 59% and the draw probability implied around 18%, this is a clear market lean but draw risk remains ever-present. Home pitch advantage is significant in soccer.

Overround at 7.2% means books are taking a large cut — 3.6% per side on average. Factor in the vig before sizing this bet; the true edge is narrower than the raw numbers suggest.