Michigan State Spartans commands 81% implied win probability with 4-book consensus — this is a market-confirmed lean with minimal disagreement across sportsbooks.

Spread of 10.5 points — double-digit spreads in football cover only ~47% historically, creating inherent dog value. Home field adds roughly 2.5-3 points of built-in advantage.

Line shopping is critical here — 25-point odds gap across books means getting the best number adds 7.5% to expected ROI. Best available at FanDuel vs worst creates meaningful EV difference.