Market pricing Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at 41% implied probability, but the best available line at +147 (Caesars) offers value beyond what the consensus supports.

Spread of 3.5 points — right at the field goal margin — the most common NFL final margin. Home field adds roughly 2.5-3 points of built-in advantage.

Market overround at 4.3% is in the normal range with 4 books pricing this game. Confidence level of 72% accounts for the vig-adjusted edge.