TCU Horned Frogs commands 72% implied win probability with 6-book consensus — this is a market-confirmed lean with minimal disagreement across sportsbooks.

Spread of 6.5 points — right at the field goal margin — the most common NFL final margin. Home field adds roughly 2.5-3 points of built-in advantage.

Line shopping is critical here — 20-point odds gap across books means getting the best number adds 6.0% to expected ROI. Best available at Bovada vs worst creates meaningful EV difference.