Houston Cougars commands 93% implied win probability with 4-book consensus — this is a market-confirmed lean with minimal disagreement across sportsbooks.

Spread of 18.5 points — double-digit spreads in football cover only ~47% historically, creating inherent dog value. Home field adds roughly 2.5-3 points of built-in advantage.

Line shopping is critical here — 75-point odds gap across books means getting the best number adds 22.5% to expected ROI. Best available at FanDuel vs worst creates meaningful EV difference.