Duke Blue Devils commands 82% implied win probability with 4-book consensus — this is a market-confirmed lean with minimal disagreement across sportsbooks.

Spread of 9.5 points — key number territory where games cluster around touchdown margins. Home field adds roughly 2.5-3 points of built-in advantage.

Market overround at 4.6% is in the normal range with 4 books pricing this game. Confidence level of 74% accounts for the vig-adjusted edge.