James Madison Dukes commands 71% implied win probability with 4-book consensus — this is a market-confirmed lean with minimal disagreement across sportsbooks.

Spread of 6 points — right at the field goal margin — the most common NFL final margin. Home field adds roughly 2.5-3 points of built-in advantage.

Market overround at 4.3% is in the normal range with 4 books pricing this game. Confidence level of 76% accounts for the vig-adjusted edge.