Market pricing Washington Commanders at 39% implied probability, but the best available line at +164 (DraftKings) offers value beyond what the consensus supports.

Spread of 3.5 points — right at the field goal margin — the most common NFL final margin. Road favorites must overcome roughly 3 points of home field baked into the line.

Market overround at 5.6% is in the normal range with 2 books pricing this game. Confidence level of 70% accounts for the vig-adjusted edge.