Market pricing Jacksonville Jaguars at 45% implied probability, but the best available line at +130 (Caesars) offers value beyond what the consensus supports.

Spread of 2.5 points — a tight number reflecting a competitive matchup. Home field adds roughly 2.5-3 points of built-in advantage.

Market overround at 5.3% is in the normal range with 2 books pricing this game. Confidence level of 68% accounts for the vig-adjusted edge.