Market pricing Denver Broncos at 43% implied probability, but the best available line at +135 (Caesars) offers value beyond what the consensus supports.

Spread of 3 points — right at the field goal margin — the most common NFL final margin. Road favorites must overcome roughly 3 points of home field baked into the line.

Market overround at 4.9% is in the normal range with 2 books pricing this game. Confidence level of 71% accounts for the vig-adjusted edge.