🏈 NFL
Thu, Sep 17, 8:15 PM ETDetroit Lions
Away
@
Buffalo Bills
Home
Spread
+3
Total
52.5
ML
-162
AI Pick
Edge: value
74%
MONEYLINE
Detroit Lions
Confidence74%
Buffalo Bills 62%Detroit Lions 43%
AI Analysis
1
Market pricing Detroit Lions at 43% implied probability, but the best available line at +140 (BetMGM) offers value beyond what the consensus supports.
2
Spread of 3 points — right at the field goal margin — the most common NFL final margin. Home field adds roughly 2.5-3 points of built-in advantage.
3
Market overround at 4.5% is in the normal range with 5 books pricing this game. Confidence level of 74% accounts for the vig-adjusted edge.
Matchup Overview
LIONS
Record
--
Recent Form
L5: 3-2
vs
Books
5
BILLS
Record
--
Recent Form
L5: 3-2
Bet Types
| Sportsbook | LIONS | BILLS |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +3 -110 | -3 -110 |
| Caesars | +3 -110 | -3 -110 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 +100 | -3 -120 |
| BetMGM | +3 -115 | -3 -105 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 +105 | -3 -116 |
| BetRivers | +3 -118 | -3 -106 |
| Fanatics | +3 -110 | -3 -110 |
Edge Analysis
Books Tracked
5
Overround
4.5%
Best Buffalo Bills
-159 (Caesars)
Best Detroit Lions
+140 (BetMGM)
Line Shopping Range
Bills: -165 to -159
Lions: +130 to +140
Place Your Bet
21+ only. Gambling involves risk. Please bet responsibly.
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