Market pricing New England Patriots at 40% implied probability, but the best available line at +160 (Caesars) offers value beyond what the consensus supports.

Spread of 3 points — right at the field goal margin — the most common NFL final margin. Home field adds roughly 2.5-3 points of built-in advantage.

Market overround at 4.7% is in the normal range with 2 books pricing this game. Confidence level of 67% accounts for the vig-adjusted edge.