New England Patriots commands 81% implied win probability with 2-book consensus — this is a market-confirmed lean with minimal disagreement across sportsbooks.

Spread of 8.5 points — key number territory where games cluster around touchdown margins. Home field adds roughly 2.5-3 points of built-in advantage.

Market overround at 4.3% is in the normal range with 2 books pricing this game. Confidence level of 74% accounts for the vig-adjusted edge.