New England Patriots commands 71% implied win probability with 2-book consensus — this is a market-confirmed lean with minimal disagreement across sportsbooks.

Spread of 4.5 points — right at the field goal margin — the most common NFL final margin. Home field adds roughly 2.5-3 points of built-in advantage.

Market overround at 4.4% is in the normal range with 2 books pricing this game. Confidence level of 69% accounts for the vig-adjusted edge.