Total set at 2.5 with Over priced at -260 (72%) and Under at +215 (32%) — the skew on this line offers a mathematical angle.

Combat sports produce some of the widest odds differentials — at 86% the market sees a significant skill gap, but upsets at this price range happen 20-30% of the time. The +525 best available on Alfie Davis offers strong plus-money if they can execute their game plan.

Market overround at 4.0% is in the normal range with 2 books pricing this game. Confidence level of 75% accounts for the vig-adjusted edge.