🥊 UFC
Sat, May 16, 8:00 PM ETIvan Erslan
Away
@
Tuco Tokkos
Home
Spread
N/A
Total
2.5
ML
+140
AI Pick
Edge: total
73%
TOTAL
Over 2.5
Confidence73%
Ivan Erslan 63%Tuco Tokkos 41%
AI Analysis
1
Total set at 2.5 with Over priced at +140 (42%) and Under at -160 (62%) — the skew on this line offers a mathematical angle.
2
Combat sports produce some of the widest odds differentials — a 63/41 split means the market sees a competitive fight where the underdog has real paths to victory. The +155 best available on Tuco Tokkos is relatively tight for a dog in this sport.
3
Line shopping is critical here — 20-point odds gap across books means getting the best number adds 6.0% to expected ROI. Best available at BetRivers vs worst creates meaningful EV difference.
Matchup Overview
ERSLAN
Record
--
Recent Form
L5: 3-2
vs
Books
7
TOKKOS
Record
--
Recent Form
L5: 3-2
Bet Types
| Sportsbook | ERSLAN | TOKKOS |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -5.5 -120 | +5.5 -110 |
Edge Analysis
Books Tracked
7
Overround
4.5%
Best Ivan Erslan
-160 (BetOnline.ag)
Best Tuco Tokkos
+155 (BetRivers)
Line Shopping Range
Erslan: -200 to -160
Tokkos: +135 to +155
Place Your Bet
21+ only. Gambling involves risk. Please bet responsibly.
Share This Pick
More UFC Picks