Market pricing Mario Bautista at 44% implied probability, but the best available line at +130 (DraftKings) offers value beyond what the consensus supports.

Combat sports produce some of the widest odds differentials — a 60/44 split means the market sees a competitive fight where the underdog has real paths to victory. The +130 best available on Mario Bautista is relatively tight for a dog in this sport.

Market overround at 4.4% is in the normal range with 5 books pricing this game. Confidence level of 68% accounts for the vig-adjusted edge.