🥊 UFC
Sat, May 16, 8:00 PM ETLuis Gurule
Away
@
Daniel Barez
Home
Spread
N/A
Total
2.5
ML
-107
AI Pick
Edge: total
73%
TOTAL
Under 2.5
Confidence73%
Luis Gurule 54%Daniel Barez 51%
AI Analysis
1
Total set at 2.5 with Over priced at -155 (61%) and Under at +135 (43%) — the skew on this line offers a mathematical angle.
2
Combat sports produce some of the widest odds differentials — a 54/51 split means the market sees a competitive fight where the underdog has real paths to victory. The +100 best available on Daniel Barez is relatively tight for a dog in this sport.
3
Line shopping is critical here — 213-point odds gap across books means getting the best number adds 63.9% to expected ROI. Best available at DraftKings vs worst creates meaningful EV difference.
Matchup Overview
GURULE
Record
--
Recent Form
L5: 3-2
vs
Books
7
BAREZ
Record
--
Recent Form
L5: 3-2
Bet Types
| Sportsbook | GURULE | BAREZ |
|---|
Edge Analysis
Books Tracked
7
Overround
5.0%
Best Luis Gurule
-113 (BetOnline.ag)
Best Daniel Barez
+100 (DraftKings)
Line Shopping Range
Barez: -113 to +100
Gurule: -120 to -113
Place Your Bet
21+ only. Gambling involves risk. Please bet responsibly.
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