Taking the contrarian side here: despite Guilherme Viana being the public favorite, the 8.6% overround and +250 best line on Joseph White suggest inflated chalk pricing.

Combat sports produce some of the widest odds differentials — at 80% the market sees a significant skill gap, but upsets at this price range happen 20-30% of the time. The +250 best available on Joseph White offers strong plus-money if they can execute their game plan.

Overround at 8.6% means books are taking a large cut — 4.3% per side on average. Factor in the vig before sizing this bet; the true edge is narrower than the raw numbers suggest.